Week 4 College Football Picks 2014

In our effort to track that data, we have written a summary of the betting data from this past week, Week 4 of this 2014 season. There were 57 FBS college football games played in Week 4. In reading this article, it is important to understand that the break-even point in college football betting is “winning” at the rate of 52.38%. (The standard sports-book requires the bettors to wager $110 for every $100 to be won.)

Therefore, any percentage greater than 52.38% should be considered winning, while anything less than 52.38% should be considered losing for anyone’s college football picks.

Against-the-Spread (ATS) Favorites and Underdogs

In Week 4 of the college football season, the favorite beat the spread 32 times, while the underdog beat the spread 24 times. (One game was a “pick ’em” game, meaning there was no favorite.) Therefore, favorites beat the spread 57.14% of the time. Extreme college football favorites, defined as teams favored by at least three touchdowns (21 points), beat the spread 12 times while losing just 6 of those games. Therefore, extreme favorites beat the spread 66.67% of the time. Small favorites, defined as teams favored by a single touchdown (seven points) or less, beat the spread 6 times, but lost 12 of those match ups- the exact inverse results of the extreme favorites. Therefore, small favorites beat the spread just 33.33% of the time.

How the Public Bet 먹튀검증

Just how the public bets can be revealing. Conventional wisdom in sports betting suggests that betting against the public is always best. We put that conventional wisdom to the test in this section. For teams that had a majority of the public betting on their side, they beat the spread 35 times and lost 21 of those games. (One game was an even, 50-50 split.) Therefore, the public was correct in 62.5% of Week 4’s games. That really flies in the face of that conventional wisdom. Sometimes, however, a simple majority can be misleading. We also looked at teams that had at least 60% of the public betting on their side. They beat the spread 26 times and lost just 9 times. That 60% majority side beat the spread 74.29% of the time in Week 4! In even more extreme public betting, teams receiving at least 70%, beat the spread 11 times and lost just 5 times. Therefore, those extreme public betting sides beat the spread 68.75% of the time.

Final Analysis: Week 4 ATS

An analysis of the Week 4 college football betting data makes it clear that this was the week of the “public bettors.” For the majority of the public to be right in every category (simple, 60%, and 70% majorities) is rather unusual. Sports books would be out-of-business if such a phenomenon were the norm. We expect to see quite different results over the long-term, and we are particularly interested in seeing how the sports books “adjust” for this upcoming Week 5.

 

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